David Schoenfield, ESPN Senior WriterJun 27, 2024, 04:30 PM
There are always the few big names that dominate the winter -- this past offseason, it was all about Shohei Ohtani. There isn't as much attention paid to the lower-ranked free agents, but as this season has shown us, those players can make the largest impacts on their respective teams or put up some of the more impressive numbers.
Case in point: Despite being signed only to one-year deals before this season, Teoscar Hernandez and Jurickson Profar are likely to be named starting outfielders for the National League in this season's All-Star Game.
Hernandez was an afterthought when the Los Angeles Dodgers signed him in January -- after all, they had already committed more than a billion dollars combined for Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They signed Hernandez for $23.5 million, with $8.5 million of that deferred starting in 2030. Think of all the teams struggling for outfield offense in 2024: Any team could have afforded that deal. Hernandez has been outstanding, a much-needed right-handed batter in the middle of the Dodgers' lineup while on pace for 36 home runs and over 100 RBIs.
Profar was even more of an afterthought after he was one of the worst everyday players in the majors last season with the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres. Needing outfield depth, the Padres re-signed him to a $1 million deal -- and he's come through in a huge way, including a walk-off hit on Monday and belting his second grand slam of the season on Tuesday night. Shockingly, he's battling Ohtani for the NL lead in batting average and tops all NL outfielders in wRC+.
Hernandez was ranked No. 15 on Kiley McDaniel's list of top free agents entering this past offseason, while Profar was unranked. Let's take a look at some of the big wins among these second-tier free agents, in order of their ranking on McDaniel's list.
Teoscar Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers
Free agent ranking: 15th
Contract: One year, $23.5 million
2024 stats: .252/.318/.487, 18 HR, 55 RBIs, 1.9 WAR
Why the Dodgers signed him: They needed a right-handed bat to help balance out all those lefties in Ohtani, Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward.
Hernandez had been an All-Star with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2021 and followed up with solid seasons in 2022 and 2023, but teams were perhaps scared off by his 211 strikeouts with the Mariners last season. That's a lot of swing-and-miss, although the Dodgers no doubt noted that Hernandez had hit .295 with an .830 OPS on the road compared to .217 with a .643 OPS in Seattle. McDaniel had predicted a three-year, $52.5 million deal -- a reasonable estimate for an athletic, 2- to 3-win player -- and maybe the Dodgers don't make a commitment for a three-year deal, but the slow market, combined with his desire to play for a winning team, dropped Hernandez into their laps to fill a hole in the outfield.
One thing about Hernandez: He's a high-energy, positive clubhouse guy. For a team that has won as much as the Dodgers over the past decade -- while winning the World Series just once (and that comes with an asterisk) -- it made sense to not only add some new blood but add a player like Hernandez, who was going to fit in not just in the lineup but off the field as well. As the Dodgers do so often, they've helped Hernandez improve a bit: He has cut his strikeouts three percentage points, which is minimal, but he's cut his chase rate nearly six percentage points. It probably helps that he has a lot of high OBP guys batting in front of him, forcing pitchers to throw him a few more strikes than he saw in Seattle.
Given all the teams across the league struggling for offense -- including his former teams in Toronto and Seattle -- Hernandez's deal looks like a steal. The Dodgers do it again.
Jordan Hicks, San Francisco Giants
Free agent ranking: 17th
Contract: Four years, $44 million
2024 stats: 4-4, 3.24 ERA, 80⅔ IP, 72 H, 31 BB, 69 SO, 1.2 WAR
Why the Giants signed him: They needed starting pitchers. With Alex Cobb injured, Logan Webb was their only returning starter who had made even 15 starts in 2023.
The interesting thing here was that Hicks hadn't been a starter for most of his career, but the Giants signed him and immediately announced their intention to move the hard-throwing righty into the rotation. The St. Louis Cardinals had tried that in 2022, an experiment that lasted eight starts with Hicks going back to the bullpen with a 5.02 ERA.
This is a slightly different Hicks, however. As a reliever, he relied on his 100-mph sinker and a sweeper. He messed around with a splitter through the years, but (1) he didn't really need it as a reliever and (2) he never felt comfortable throwing it after he had Tommy John surgery in 2019. According to Statcast, he threw it just 1.7% of the time in 2023.
As a starter, he needed a third pitch. Hicks said in spring training that he was now fully comfortable using his splitter on a regular basis and he has, throwing it 22.5% of the time. His fastball velocity has predictably dropped, from 100.1 mph last season to 95.8 mph, but the splitter/sweeper combo gives him two valuable offspeed pitches. Batters are hitting .149 against the splitter and .130 against the sweeper.
After a hot start, Hicks has cooled off a bit with a 5.56 ERA over his past five starts. We'll see if that's just a blip or if there is some June fatigue setting in as he's already topped his previous career high in innings. Either way, the Giants made a bet on something that rarely works out -- converting a reliever to a starter -- and Hicks looks like a free-agent bargain.
Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals
Free agent ranking: 21st
Contract: Three years, $45 million
2024 stats: 10-2, 2.29 ERA, 110 IP, 89 H, 26 BB, 95 SO, 3.9 WAR
Why the Royals signed him: After a 5.12 rotation ERA in 2023, the Royals needed starting pitching help like people in the Middle Ages needed dental work.
One way to evaluate organizations: What happens to players when they leave one club for another. The New York Mets had Lugo for seven years, using him almost exclusively as a reliever. They tried him as a starter back in 2017, and he was OK, not great -- with a 4.76 ERA in 18 starts. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was good at 3.42. He had a high BABIP, although it probably didn't help that the Mets had an infield of 30-somethings. Lugo had probably earned more chances to start, but the Mets decided he was a reliever and that was that.
Fast-forward to 2023, the Padres signed Lugo as a starter and he posted 3.57 ERA over 26 starts. He entered free agency again and got a three-year deal that was a little above Kiley's prediction (three years, $36 million). It was a good signing in the sense that the Royals were desperate for rotation help and starters who could fill some innings ... but nobody expected this. At 34 years old, Seth Lugo, owner of a 92-mph fastball, is a Cy Young contender through two-plus months.
He's remarkable to watch because there is nobody out there doing what he's doing right now: He has eight pitches he's throwing at least 4% of the time, five of which he throws at least 9%. Salvador Perez must have to wear two different PitchCom transmitters to get the signals to Lugo. It's all about keeping the batters off-balance and guessing, and throwing different pitches to different parts of the strike zone. It's magical. Craft over velocity.
Can he keep it going? If you look at his Statcast page, his walk rate is the only category in red (above average) and everything else is in blue (below average). Now, a good portion of those are in the 45th-55th percentile range (except fastball velocity), so it's not like he's giving up screaming line drives all over the place. He probably has been a little hit-lucky, but maybe Lugo is so unique that he breaks some of the metrics we use to analyze pitchers. While you would certainly expect some regression moving forward, he's already closing in on the first 5.0-WAR season for a Royals pitcher since Zack Greinke's 2009 Cy Young season in 2009.
Michael Lorenzen, Texas Rangers
Free agent ranking: 25th
Contract: One year, $4.5 million
2024 stats: 4-3, 3.04 ERA, 77 IP, 58 H, 31 BB, 55 SO, 1.7 WAR
Why the Rangers signed him: With Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle all injured and Jordan Montgomery in free agency, the Rangers needed rotation depth.
Lorenzen signed late -- March 20 -- although, unlike Montgomery or Blake Snell, he has been just fine despite missing almost all of spring training. The Rangers are under .500, so that's a disappointment coming off the World Series title, but the rotation isn't the main reason why. It ranks 10th in the majors in ERA, compared to seventh in 2023.
Lorenzen has been solid, chewing up six innings per start and keeping the Rangers in games -- not bad for the bargain price of $4.5 million. The secondary stats aren't anything special, however, and if the above injured starters all make it back (Scherzer just returned), Lorenzen could eventually end up in the bullpen down the stretch. I'm not sure that's necessarily a great fit -- he doesn't have the strikeout stuff you like to see from relievers -- but for now he's remaining in the rotation and has a 2.06 ERA over his past eight starts.
Craig Kimbrel, Baltimore Orioles
Free agent ranking: 33rd
Contract: One year, $13 million (with 2025 option)
2024 stats: 5-2, 2.54 ERA, 28⅓ IP, 16 H, 12 BB, 42 SO, 0.6 WAR
Why the Orioles signed him: All-Star Felix Bautista blew out his elbow late last season, so they needed a closer.
I didn't love this signing, primarily because of Kimbrel's rough postseason with the Philadelphia Phillies, when he lost two games in the NLCS. Plus, he allowed 10 home runs in 69 innings in the regular season. Even now, while Kimbrel has been effective enough with 17 saves in 21 opportunities, the question of October will remain unanswered until then, no matter what kind of regular season Kimbrel puts together. Still, he's been an important part of a bullpen that did need somebody to replace Bautista.
Reynaldo Lopez, Atlanta Braves
Free agent ranking: 34th
Contract: Three years, $30 million (with 2027 option)
2024 stats: 6-2, 1.70 ERA, 79⅓ IP, 61 H, 27 BB, 81 SO, 3.1 WAR
Why the Braves signed him: You can never have too many starters.
Give the Braves credit here: Lopez has always had a tremendous arm, but the Chicago White Sox gave up on him as a starter and he pitched in relief the past two seasons. The Braves loved the fastball and figured, why not, let's move him back to the rotation -- and so far, he's yet to allow more than three runs in a game. The Braves have been careful with his workload, keeping him under 95 pitches in every start and pitching him just once on four days of rest, but you can't argue with the results. His fastball is averaging 95.4 mph and he's getting a higher whiff rate on his slider (46%) than he did the past two seasons (38%) as a reliever.
The key for Lopez has been limiting home runs, which plagued him as a starter previously. As a fly ball pitcher, he's no doubt benefited from the less lively ball this year. Entering this season, he had allowed home runs on 16.8% of fly balls over his career; this year, it's just 3.5%. That's ripe for regression, but given Spencer Strider's injury, signing Lopez clearly ranks as one of the best moves of the entire offseason.
Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers
Free agent ranking: 35th
Contract: One year, $14 million
2024 stats: 5-4, 2.92 ERA, 83⅓ IP, 68 H, 13 BB, 108 SO, 2.4 WAR
Why the Tigers signed him: He's had a lot of injury issues, but he was one of the top starters in baseball back in 2019 -- and he's still just 28 years old. You never know.
Wow. Check out that strikeout-to-walk ratio. That's less than one walk per start from a pitcher who averaged 4.1 walks per nine innings last season. We mentioned how Lugo's Statcast page is a whole bunch of blue; Flaherty's is all red except for fastball velocity (just below league average at 93.5 mph) and average exit velo (55th percentile). His season includes a dominant 14-strikeout game against his former Cardinals team and back-to-back-to-back scoreless outings on the road against the Red Sox, Rangers (although he did leave this start with back tightness) and Astros. He induced 24 swing-and-misses against St. Louis -- tied for the fourth most in a start this season.
The key: The return of his wipeout slider, the pitch that fueled his remarkable run in the second half of 2019. That season, Flaherty had a whiff rate of 45% on his slider; by last season, it had dipped to 26.5%. This season, it's back up to 41.5%. His overall chase rates and whiff rates are higher than 2019 as well. As that walk rate suggests, he's doing a much better job locating his fastball. He's also ditched the cutter that served up a .318 average last season.
No doubt, better health has played a role. Still, the turnaround from last season is dramatic. When the Cardinals traded Flaherty to the Orioles and he then struggled with Baltimore (6.75 ERA in seven starts), his confidence appeared shot. Well, not anymore. With Flaherty on a one-year contract and the Tigers already well back of Cleveland in the AL Central (although they are in the wild-card race), he could be available at the trade deadline -- and given his performance so far, would net the Tigers a nice trade return.
Luis Severino, New York Mets
Free agent ranking: Not ranked
Contract: One year, $13 million
2024 stats: 5-2, 3.29 ERA, 90⅓ IP, 73 H, 31 BB, 71 SO, 1.4 WAR
Why the Mets signed him: They rolled the dice on a pitcher coming off a bad season but who had been effective as recently as 2022.
Yes, another pitcher, in case you haven't noticed this trend. The Mets struck quickly, signing Severino in November despite his coming off a season with the New York Yankees in which he had a 6.65 ERA. His four-seamer, which is averaging 96 mph, has been solid, but it doesn't generate the swing-and-miss it did during his 2017-18 peak, before Tommy John surgery. He has suppressed home runs so far, but his overall strikeout rate isn't impressive, so I'd be a little wary about him moving forward. His rate stats also take a big hit the third time through the order (.808 OPS allowed). The Mets have clawed back into the wide-open wild-card race, but if they falter again before the trade deadline, Severino could be trade bait.
Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres
Free agent ranking: Not ranked
Contract: One year, $1 million
2024 stats: .316/.408/.484, 11 HR, 55 RBIs, 2.0 WAR
Why the Padres signed him: After trading Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees, the Padres had just two outfielders on their 40-man roster.
You can see given the contract that there was basically no interest in Profar around the league. That's understandable, given his 81 OPS+ last season -- second-lowest among all qualified outfielders. The Padres signed him back because they needed warm bodies and didn't have any money to spend. So, of course Profar has been the best-hitting outfielder in the NL, leading the league in OBP. If he keeps it up, this has a chance to go down as one of the great fluke/out-of-nowhere seasons in recent history, considering he entered the season with a career average of .239 and OBP of .322.
Profar has always had a pretty good eye and above-average contact rates, but he's never been able to translate that into big offensive numbers. This year, he's hitting the ball much harder, improving his average exit velocity from 86.5 mph to 90.4 mph and his hard-hit rate (balls over 95 mph) from the 12th percentile to the 54th. It's been a winding road for Profar, who was once the game's top overall prospect until shoulder injuries early in his career kind of derailed him at an important developmental time. Factor in the lukewarm numbers from Manny Machado and the injury to Xander Bogaerts and Profar is suddenly the key man in the Padres' lineup.
